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The coronavirus outbreak could result in at least a 3.3% drop — and as high as a 9% dip — in the volume of PCs that will ship globally this year, research firm Canalys reported Thursday evening in its revised projections to clients.

PC shipments will be down between 10.1% to 20.6% in Q1 2020, the firm estimated. The impact will remain visible in Q2, when the shipments are expected to drop between 8.9% (best-case scenario, per Canalys) and 23.4% (worst-case scenario), it said.

In the best-case scenario, the outbreak would mean 382 million units will ship in 2020, down 3.4% from 396 million last year.

The worst case makes a deeper dent, stating that about 362 million units will ship this year, down 8.5% from last year.

“In the best-case scenario, production levels are expected to revert to full capacity by April 2020, hence the biggest hit will be to sell-in shipments in the first two quarters, with the market recovering in Q3 and Q4,” the firm said.

“Thus, worldwide PC market shipments are expected to decline 3.4% year on year in 2020, with Q1 2020 down by 10% and Q2 2020 by 9%. PC market supply will normalize by Q3 2020. On a yearly basis, Canalys expects the worldwide PC market will slowly begin its recovery starting in 2021.”

The worst-case scenario assumes that production levels will not return to their full capacity by June 2020. “Under the assumptions of this scenario, production and demand levels in China will take even longer to recover and Q2 will suffer a decline on a par with Q1 as a consequence. It will be as late as Q4 2020 until we see a market recovery.”

In either of the scenarios, China, one of the world’s largest PC markets, will be most impacted. In worst-case scenarios, “the Chinese market will suffer heavily in 2020 under this scenario, with a 12% year-on-year decline over 2019, and subsequent stabilization taking even longer, with 2021 forecast shipments lagging 6 million behind the best-case scenario. The expected CAGR between 2021 and 2024 in China is 6.3%,” Canalys stated.

China, the global hub for production and supply chain, moved to contain the impact of coronavirus by first extending the official Lunar New Year holidays, which was followed by stringent travel restrictions to keep citizens safe. “This resulted in a significant drop in offline retail traffic and a dramatic fall in consumer purchases,” Canalys analysts said.

The outbreak has also resulted in supply shortages of components, such as PCBs and memory in China and other markets. “Likewise, channel partners have received notifications from key PC vendors over the last two weeks that their PC shipments and replacement parts can be expected to arrive in up to 14 weeks – over three times the usual delivery time – depending on where partners are located,” the firm said.

“Technology vendors and channel partners in the Asia Pacific region face the unexpected challenge of coping with the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The crisis was largely unforeseen, even in mid-January. Most leaders this year were anticipating disruption from political instability and natural disasters, not an epidemic,” wrote Sharon Hiu, an analyst at Canalys in a separate report.

The outbreak has impacted several more industries, including smartphones, automobiles, television, smart speakers and video game consoles.

Foxconn, a key manufacturer for Apple, said on Thursday that its 2020 revenue will be impacted by Wuhan coronavirus. The firm said its factories in India, Vietnam and Mexico are fully loaded and it is planning to expand overseas.

Earlier this month, Apple said it does not expect to meet revenue guidance for March quarter due to constrained iPhone supply and low demand due to the store closures in China.

The U.S. giant is expected to miss its schedule for mass producing a widely rumored affordable iPhone, while inventories for existing models could remain low until April or longer, Nikkei Asian Review reported on Wednesday.

Delta, American, and United airlines will cancel all flights to and from mainland China as the confirmed death toll from the new coronavirus hits 213 and the number of confirmed cases reaches almost 10,000 worldwide, with over 100,000 more patients under medical observation.

American’s flights to China are all canceled starting today, while Delta and United’s cancellations will be phased in over the next week. Delta will suspend all air travel to China on February 6 and not resume flights until April 30, according to a new announcement posted to the airline’s website.

“The last China-bound flight departing the U.S. will leave on Monday, Feb. 3 with the last return flight back to the U.S. departing China on Feb. 5,” Delta said in a statement. “The airline will continue to monitor the situation closely and may make additional adjustments as the situation continues to evolve.”

American announced that it would be canceling all flights based on the U.S. government’s recommendations for travel to the region.

“Based on the U.S. Department of State’s recent increase of the China Travel Advisory to a Level 4 (Do Not Travel), American is suspending its operations to and from the Chinese mainland beginning today through March 27,” a spokesperson for American told Gizmodo via email.

“Our teams are contacting affected customers directly to accommodate their needs. We will continue to evaluate the schedule for March 28 and beyond and make any adjustments as necessary.”

United announced that it would cancel flights to and from the cities of Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai in China starting February 6 until March 28. But United will continue to operate one flight per day between San Francisco and Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous part of China.

“Until that date, we will continue to operate select flights to help ensure our U.S. based employees, as well as customers, have options to return home,” a United spokesperson told Gizmodo via email. “We will continue to operate one daily flight between San Francisco and Hong Kong. As always, the safety of our customers and employees is our highest priority and we will continue to monitor the situation as it develops.”

The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern” on Thursday, and at least five countries have seen human-to-human transmission in people who haven’t visited China, including Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and a case in Chicago.

The UK announced its first two cases of the virus on Friday, and Russia also announced two cases. Singapore, which has 13 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, announced that it would be banning Chinese nationals from entering the country. Anyone who’s traveled to China within the past 14 days won’t be allowed to enter. Mongolia also announced that it was banning travel from any Chinese nationals.

A handful of international airlines have announced today that they will stop flying to China, including Vietnam’s VietJet, Rwanda’s RwandAir, and Kenya Airways, according to a new report from CNBC. Even some Chinese airlines like Shanghai Airlines announced that they would cut back on a number of flights out of the country to places like Hungary.

There’s a wait-and-watch attitude in much of the world outside Asia, as no one outside of China has yet died from the disease and the spread has been relatively slow. But Delta and American’s decisions to cancel all flights for months is sure to spook people who weren’t quite sure how serious to take this outbreak.

Customers who had flights booked on Delta between now and April 30 are encouraged to log into Delta’s website and click “My Trips” where they can find out more information, including how they can request a refund.

Update, 1:10 pm ET: Updated with information about United’s cancellations.